🔗 Share this article

A mere eight weeks prior that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a sign or a cause of the team's more general malaise.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.

Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa registered an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – yet currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they will encounter as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The winger might become the force he resembled during his peak.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.

Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like an essential England player.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.